Please vote below, answer will be released on May 18th.

With $115B cumulative 2008-2018 HLS market, this country’s market is 2nd largest only to the U.S. The answer may surprise you (it certainly surprised us).

For the past 12 months Homeland Security Research Corporation has been engaged in a massive global homeland security market & technology research with the goal of discovering future trends, markets, technologies and growth sectors. Within the next two weeks we will begin to publish this research in a series of market research reports segmented by geographic region. The first report will focus on the aforementioned country.

The actual cost to the U.S. federal government of the war against terror is a subject of many heated debates in the halls of Congress. Estimates range from anywhere between the $700 Billion according to the Congressional Research Service, to $4 Trillion according to some private analysts. HSRC’s own analysts estimated a figure of $2.4 Trillion per the calculations in the table below. With so much of the variance due to accounting assumptions, a consensus on the actual amount is likely never to be reached. However, with an estimated one third of that budget ending up in the private market, what is clear is that a market of dozens to hundreds of billions of dollars has already emerged as a result of this war.

By Edward Herlik

Colorado Springs, CO (April 22, 2008) - A Los Angeles Times article today quoted Defense Secretary Robert Gates singling out the Air Force for adapting too slowly to battlefield realities. In a now-routine speech at the service’s war college, Gates pointed out that getting senior commanders to field the non-traditional systems needed by troops in combat overseas has been “like pulling teeth.” Gates went further to describe senior military leaders as, “stuck in old ways of doing business.”

The Secretary’s criticism specifically referenced the slow pace of fielding unmanned aerial vehicles over the battlefield. Such criticism is not new but it now comes from the most senior member of the American defense establishment. Gates continued to say, “Our services are still not moving aggressively in wartime to provide resources needed now on the battlefield.”

Near space, generally defined as the atmosphere between 20 and 100 km, was recently advocated as a solution to the unique challenges posed by the counter insurgency conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Information shortages are acutely felt in the kinds of missions most suitable for Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs). Advocates claim that planes and blimps in near space could spend weeks, if not months, on station. In other words, UASs flying persistent missions from near space would go a long way toward meeting the immediate need.

The US Air Force’s Space Command was the primary champion of persistent flight vehicles in near space until 2006, when it transferred that responsibility to the Air Combat Command. Space leaders recently joked that Space Command follows the laws of Kepler and not the laws of Bernoulli. That’s a somewhat dismissive rocket scientist geek reference to the physics of orbits rather than the aerodynamics of flight. Air Combat Command, in turn, is now working to transfer lighter-than-air vehicles to Cyber Command, a new Air Force entity temporarily headquartered at Barksdale AFB, LA. There has been essentially no Air Force interest in high altitude airships since General John Jumper, the previous Chief of Staff, retired in September 2005. Long endurance fixed wing UAS work continues as an extension of existing unmanned vehicle developments.

Parts of the military, however, are still very much interested in near space and its potential to support troops on the ground and in the air. The Army’s Space and Missile Defense Command has long expressed interest in fielding communications relay and various sensors for troops in combat. They are also an interested observer of a high altitude airship flight scheduled for this week.

Northern Command and NORAD’s commander, General Victor Renuart, was recently quoted by Inside the Air Force as saying of high altitude airships, “They have applicability in the counter-narcotics world, they have applicability in maintaining maritime awareness, they have applicability in airborne radar, if you will, in areas that we don’t have good ground-based radar coverage to provide warning and situational awareness, both in my NORAD and my NORTHCOM hats.” General Renuart would clearly welcome such developments, but his commands are legally prevented from developing such systems. That role is reserved for the services, such as the Air Force, where near space persistence runs ‘persistently’ into powerful opposition from the satellite community.

The recent 24th annual Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, CO confirmed that the space community is essentially out of the near space business. Boeing and Lockheed-Martin, both of which operated prominent displays, did not include details on their high altitude, long endurance unmanned systems as they have in the recent past. They also did not respond to requests for more information on those systems. Other past participants, such as Sanswire, were absent completely.

Displays in the two huge Broadmoor Hotel event halls included model airships and solar powered UAVs as recently as two years ago. One small company, Sanswire, even enticed participants with a chance to pilot their airship in a simulation built around predicted flight parameters. Such displays were not evident with one exception.

In contrast to the large defense firms, small companies displayed, or expressed an interest in, near space. Space Data Corporation (http://www.spacedata.net/) displayed their actual flight vehicle. That system consists of a weather balloon controlled from the ground through their proprietary valve and ballast system and able to carry multiple small payloads to 30 km. Onboard sensors and data from other balloon flights are combined to allow operators some directional control through changing altitude and, therefore, floating in favorable winds. No free-floating balloon is a persistent platform but such devices can provide persistence through replenishment. Space Data supplies systems for at least one such mission flying in a military theater today. That contract, worth up to $49 million, is the first operational military use of persistent near space capabilities. Space Data has long operated a similar commercial service to relay oil field data in Texas and Oklahoma.

Space Data Corporation’s control assembly seen below a minimally inflated balloon

Several smaller companies manufacturing space-qualified payloads are also paying attention to the progress of very high altitude flight vehicles. That environment is less hazardous than space and those vehicles generally operate without the flight loads and vibrations possible in conventional aircraft, so payload design is relative easy. It’s clear that a variety of payloads are much more mature than the vehicles needed to fly them.

Aerostar International of Sulfur Springs, TX was not represented at the Space Symposium but that’s understandable given preparations for a second flight of their HiSentinel near space airship. HiSentinel is a conventional, non-rigid airship designed to fly above 60,000’ for at least a week. Its innovations include very low structural weight and an internal, steerable solar array. The development team that also includes Southwest Research Institute, Raven Industries and the US Air Force Research Lab is in Alamogordo, NM at this writing attempting to extend the five-hour endurance demonstrated on Nov 8, 2005 by an earlier version of that UAS.

Other non-space agencies are also still interested in near space. DARPA recently completed significant airship fabric, structure and power developments. Having reduced the airship problem to an engineering exercise, that agency requested funds to develop a 140m long prototype that would, in full production, cost approximately $250 million US. DARPA has also announced work on a fixed wing, heavier-than-air UAS called Vulture. They hope to achieve five years on station in near space with a 1000-pound payload. Reports indicate DARPA plans to complete risk reduction during 2012 and decide on prototype development then.

This writer will soon complete a detailed persistent platform technology and market forecast report for the Homeland Security Research Corporation. Interested firms may participate in that research by contacting him at
EHerlik@HSRC.biz.

Related Posts:
Air Force Shuns Near Space Missions

Unmanned Aerial Systems Becoming More Like Satellites

In a post to the DHS’s blog, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff charged the media for overlooking “a very significant story that tells us a lot about why we need some of the moderately inconvenient security measures with which we live” — a reference to the limit on liquids allowed on board flights, and other airport security requirements.

Chertoff hinted on some chilling plot details unreported to media (because U.K. law bans public discussion of the cases under investigation).

If the terrorists had succeeded to bring liquid explosives on seven or eight aircrafts flying to New York, Toronto, Washington, Montreal, San Francisco and Chicago, there could have been loss of thousands of lives and devastating effect for aviation market and global economy. The key component of the bombs the terrorists were intended to use was a liquid hydrogen peroxide explosive carried in half-liter bottles of soft drinks. The hydrogen peroxide is a component that can be purchased in any drugstore. The devices would have been carried in hand luggage, along with detonators made from batteries and disposable cameras.

The entire story of banning liquids on board flights demonstrates weakness of the event-based decision making of the Homeland Security agencies. The issue of liquids on board flights has been raised long before the U.K. plot exposed this particular security vulnerability. How long should it take for the govenments to accept pre-emptive risk assessment of security vulnerabilities instead of post-attack over-reactive action? Terror innovates and takes new shapes, so should we.

A recently declassified report submitted to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee analyzes how Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey would respond if Tehran acquires nuclear weapons.

Based on research and interviews, this report comes to the following conclusions:

1. Saudi Arabia: “The development of a Saudi nuclear weapon represents one of the most serious and most likely consequences of an Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons. If Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, it will place tremendous pressure on Saudi Arabia to follow suit. The only factor that would likely dissuade the Saudis from pursuing a nuclear weapon would be a restored United States-Saudi bilateral relationship and a repaired Saudi perception regarding the reliability of the U.S. security guarantee. If the United States does not take deliberate actions in the coming years to achieve both of these objectives, an Iranian bomb will almost certainly lead to a Saudi bomb.”
2. Egypt: “Egypt would most likely choose not to respond by pursuing its own nuclear weapons. The potential Israeli response and the impact on Egypt’s relations with the United States represent the most important reasons.”
3. Turkey: “Turkey believes this increased Iranian power would lead to a more aggressive Iranian foreign policy and a marginalization of Turkey. In such a scenario, there would be strong voices in the Turkish General Staff, as well as among ultra-nationalist politicians, arguing for Turkey to respond by pursuing nuclear weapons. Thus, the possibility still exists thatTurkey would respond to Iranian nuclear weapons by developing nuclear weapons as well.”

A nuclear arms race in the Middle East will have a deep impact on the homeland security market of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government has already demonstrated on many occasions its decisiveness to go all the way in defending the Kingdom. High energy prices allow virtually unlimited defense & homeland security spending, enough to transform Saudi Arabia into Fort-Knox-country.

The announcement in December 2007 of a joint project between Areva, the French nuclear reactor maker, and Saudi Arabia for the development of nuclear energy made in December 2007 might be of one the steps taken by the Saudi Government in upgrading the Kingdom’s capabilities to reflect the new realities of the Middle East.

With a 140% communications interoperability proposed budget increase, Louisiana is spearheading the implementation of sweeping interoperability communications reforms forecasted to spread across the U.S. From this new budget of $34 million, 61% will be spent on connectivity in north Louisiana, 11% on portable radios for local and state responders, 25% on system maintenance and the rest for new interoperability staff positions. The tragic consequences of Hurricane Katrina made all too evident the drastic need for communications interoperability reform.

The tragic consequences of Hurricane Katrina made all too evident the drastic need for communications interoperability reform. Louisiana, the most battered from Katrina is now one of the first to take the problem head-on and spend the necessary funding. With many states expected to follow Louisiana ’s lead over the next decade, multiple business opportunities will emerge in this fast growing market segment.

The National Applications Office is a new DHS body, clearing access of law enforcement, border security, Coast Guard and other agencies to satellite feeds. This move, while generating wide discussions over privacy issues and legal implications, may also have a profound impact on the market for commercial satellite imagery.

Currently access to satellite feeds is mostly in the domains of DOD and Intelligence Community. On the DOD side, Strategic Command coordinates all military and civilian space assets while Air Force Space Command acquires and operates the majority of military satellites. The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) operates the nation’s intelligence satellites, often known as national technical means (NTM).

Entrance of DHS into the sea of satellite information opens a window of opportunity for the vendors of commercial satellite imagery. A report of Homeland Security Research Corporation 2007-2011 U.S. Homeland Security (Government & Private) Market Outlook forecasts that the U.S. Homeland Security markets, driven by the government and private sectors, will grow from about $24 Billion in 2006 to $35 Billion by 2011. Not a small share of this market is the acquisition of the intelligence data from the private sector.

The two main advantages of commercial imagery are the lack of legal restrictions on their use over the United States and its unclassified nature. Privately owned commercial systems do not face the same restrictions as national systems. Their unclassified products can easily be distributed to anyone, provided the proper licenses are bought. This is important because many homeland-security agencies, especially at state and local levels, do not have the necessary security clearances for national imagery. Also, the dissemination of these products can be done through the Internet, thus providing quick and easy access. The commercial satellite technology can map the border, ports and airports; potentially detect a tunnel under the border by seeing earth disturbances or unusual vegetation patterns and help the Coast Guard to zero in on a ship’s location. Because of these advantages, commercial imagery, as it becomes more available, can become a major source of data from space for homeland security. The picture below is high resolution image of the auxiliary terminal at the King Khaled International Airport, Ryad, Saudi Arabia (source: DigitalGlobe, Google Maps).

The following three commercial satellite companies are well poised to benefit from new developments around a newly established the National Applications Office:

• GeoEye - The company operates two Earth-imaging satellites, IKONOS and OrbView-2, two mapping aircraft, possesses an international network of regional satellite receiving ground stations and has advanced geospatial imagery processing capabilities. GeoEye’s satellite can see objects as small as three feet, and the company plans to launch a second satellite next spring that will be able to see objects as small as 16 inches.
• DigitalGlobe – The company operates a constellation of high resolution earth imaging satellites, providing 60 centimeter panchromatic and 2.4 meter multispectral imagery. Digital Globe launched its second satellite in September 2007 and plans a third in late 2008. The new satellite has a resolution of about 20 inches and circles the globe every 1.7 days.
• Spot Image is a French operator of remote-sensing satellites. The company’s main shareholders are CNES (41%) and EADS (40%).

A commercial satellite owned by Space Imaging (acquired by GeoEye) took some of the most widely recognized pictures of the 9/11 attack. The New York governor’s office contacted Space Imaging directly to request information on the use of satellite imagery for disaster assessment and emergency management. It set a precedent where a state went directly to a private company rather than a federal agency for help on using space assets.

A steady stream of discouraging economic news is bringing with it a sense of the recession in the air and fears of job loss. However, many economy sectors are expected to remain strong despite a possible recession, and job seekers may have more success by focusing on recession-proof professions.

A recent report of the Merit Systems Protection Board, a body that monitors trends in the government jobs, suggests that upper-level government jobs are increasingly filled by job seekers outside of the government. The study says that the Department of Homeland Security filled more upper level positions by outside job applicants with degrees in business intelligence, management and logistics.

In the five years since its creation, DHS has faced significant challenges of recruiting, hiring, and retaining the right people. According to a 2007 report of the Partnership for Public Service the Defense and Homeland Security departments need to fill an estimated 83,000 jobs over the next two years. To cope with DHS workforce demand the U.S. colleges and universities are churning out homeland-security related degrees and certificate programs. Since 9/11 about 400 colleges offer homeland security or emergency management programs.

Since 9/11 DHS has poured more than $300 million since 9/11 into eight top U.S. universities to develop “centers of excellence” focusing on counter terror and disaster management issues.

A report of Homeland Security Research Corporation 2007-2011 U.S. Homeland Security (Government & Private) Market Outlook forecasts that the U.S. Homeland Security markets, driven by the government and private sectors, will grow from about $24 Billion in 2006 to $35 Billion by 2011.

All indicators suggest that Homeland Security is a recession proof business.

By Edward Herlik

Colorado Springs, CO (March 18, 2008) - Military and commercial pioneers have turned to satellites for decades when requirements demanded persistence, access to hostile territory or 24/7 communication. Low orbiters can overfly a point of interest perhaps five times a day. Satellites operate above sovereign airspace making them politically and physically less vulnerable than aerial vehicles. Geosynchronous orbits allow essentially instant communications all day and every day, albeit at the cost of relatively large and expensive ground equipment. That capability is possible with much smaller satellite telephones by shifting the technology burden to a constellation of communication satellites in low orbits.

Those capabilities are being slowly and predictably duplicated on very long endurance Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs). Traditionally termed UAVs for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, capability developments include extending the endurance of conventional fixed wing systems to perhaps a week. Global Hawk variants will carry more fuel and Boeing has proposed a hydrogen powered system, for example.

To be truly persistent, a UAS cannot carry rapidly depleted expendables. Solar powered systems with fuel cell or battery storage seem to meet that criteria. NASA Dryden sponsored Helios, essentially a flying wing covered in solar panels with a high pressure hydrogen fuel cell that reached very high altitude in 2001.

That development continued in partnership with AeroVironment to produce follow-on UASs such as Zephyr (pictured above) and Centurion (pictured below). Those improved aircraft are designed to operate well above 20km as communication relays.

Given that conventional aircraft expend approximately 80% of their energy generating the forward motion required for lift, there has also been varying interest in lighter than air vehicles. Airships generate lift by trapping lighter than air gas and so expend energy only for flight operations such as propulsion and mission operations such as communication.

Under Chief of Staff General John Jumper, the Air Force worked toward airships for various missions including communications relay and optical surveillance. Those efforts were cancelled when he retired in 2005. Army Space Command is attempting to continue that work and has cooperated with Southwest Research Institute on several of the few flying prototypes seen anywhere. The Missile Defense Agency funded airship work for a time. Lockheed-Martin developed the High Altitude Airship (pictured below) proposal for coastal missile defense before it was cancelled without a flying prototype.

Sanswire proposed several variants on such airships though with rigid frames rather than the overpressure, nonrigid design favored by Lockheed-Martin. That civilian development included communications capability, such as cell phone service, and data relay in place of terrestrial cable. Work ended when Sanswire’s parent company experienced financial difficulties. Both Sanswire’s and Lockheed-Martin’s programs may return in some form.

UASs promise several significant advantages over satellites. Parking over a point for a week or longer, perhaps for as long as a year, significantly reduces the need for satellite service in that area. Ordinary line of sight radios are often sufficient for communications. Cell phones and tactical radios carried by combat infantrymen fall into that category. Photography is also much easier from 20 rather than 400 kilometers altitude. Payloads may be returned for maintenance or upgrade and do not require a space rating.

Space and the upper atmosphere pose very different hazards, though neither environment is benign. UASs avoid the hard vacuum and radiation of space while satellites are not subject to wind and little-understood weather hazards such as sprites. Overall, airships offer the least challenging combination of atmospheric conditions without the vibration and potential G-loading probable in fixed wing aircraft.

Finally, extreme endurance UAS operations will mirror satellite operations in that the customer will not be concerned with vehicle issues. The persistent platform will be flown to and held in a designated orbit while its payloads operate autonomously. Atmospheric vehicles will have become satellite-like in their performance and perhaps interchangeable in their customer’s perceptions.

Related Posts:
Air Force Shuns Near Space Missions

Unmanned Aerial Systems Becoming More Like Satellites

$72.3B is the overall 2008-2012 cumulative Homeland Security interoperable communications market in the U.S. and Europe, including systems, maintenance and upgrades, National Guard and cellular user fees (in the U.S.) With a combined U.S. and Europe CAGR of 18.6% from 2008-2012, this market promises to quickly become one of the fastest growing sectors in homeland security. This unprecedented growth stems from a combination of simultaneously maturing technologies, a growing understanding of needs and advantages, a growing sense of urgency and a willingness by governments and private industry to allocate the necessary funding.

According to Homeland Security Research Corporation’s latest research report U.S. & Europe HLS Communications Interoperability Markets & Technologies Forecast - 2008 – 2012 with a combined U.S. and Europe CAGR of 18.6% from 2008-2012, this market promises to quickly become one of the fastest growing sectors in homeland security. This unprecedented growth stems from a combination of simultaneously maturing technologies, a growing understanding of needs and advantages, a growing sense of urgency and a willingness by governments and private industry to allocate the necessary funding.